PART 2: NEWLY DECLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE RECORDS GUT RUSSIA COLLUSION NARRATIVE

TOP LINE

New records declassified this week suggest the Russia Collusion Investigation was not a single line of inquiry.  It had multiple threads.  

If one line of investigation failed, another inquiry would likely gather enough evidence to prosecute a sitting President, or his closest aides.

For senior law enforcement and intelligence officials behind the probe, it may have seemed like an insurance policy. 

DEEP DIVE

This week, the nation’s top intelligence official, the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified highly sensitive records and internal documents from the Obama White House.  

The records make an even stronger case that the 2016 Russia collusion narrative (President Trump was a puppet of Vladimir Putin) was not rooted in credible intelligence. Rather, intelligence was manipulated to fit a preferred political narrative.

DNI Gabbard took the rare step of declassifying a December 8th, 2016 draft of the President’s Daily Brief or PDB. (This highly classified brief is a daily national security analysis provided by the intelligence community to the President.)  

In this case, the draft PDB assessed that “Russian and criminal actors did not impact recent US election results by conducting malicious cyber activities against election infrastructure.”  

After push back from the FBI, then led by Director James Comey, the PDB was killed. According to the newly declassified records, the decision was “based on some new guidance.” 

Context matters.  The FBI had already secured its first surveillance warrant for a Trump campaign aide two months earlier, in October 2016.  The FBI wrongly relied on the unverified Steele Dossier to help secure surveillance warrants. 

The following day, on December 9th, 2016 there was a high level White House meeting including then CIA Director John Brennan, the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper,  National Security Adviser Susan Rice among others. 

A new intelligence assessment was commissioned by President Obama…

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…and almost immediately, media leaks reinforced a new narrative that “Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help Donald Trump win the presidency, rather than undermine confidence in the U.S. electoral system.”

This appears to be another example of the “circular reporting” discussed in previous newsletters.

SOLID INVESTIGATIONS BUILD TIMELINES

The newly declassified records add to the Russia collusion timeline during a critical period.

EVENT TIMELINE

July 2016 - FBI opens Russian collusion counterintelligence investigation codenamed “Crossfire Hurricane”

October 2016 - FBI obtains first surveillance warrant for a Trump campaign aide Carter Page. FBI wrongly relies on unverified Steele Dossier to justify the warrants to the secretive surveillance court or FISA court.

December 8, 2016 - Draft PDB concludes Russia “did not impact US election results”

FBI withdraws support

PDB is killed “based on new guidance”

December 9, 2016 Meeting where Obama White House gathers top cabinet officials including Clapper, Brennan, Susan Rice, Andrew McCabe and others.

New Intelligence Assessment is commissioned

January 6, 2017 The new Intelligence Assessment, commissioned by the Obama White House, found Russia interfered in the election to help Trump.  

NOTE: There is a slight disconnect. The earlier draft PDB found that Russian election interference did not affect voting infrastructure and the outcome.  

Had it been published, it would likely have left the impression with American voters that President Trump won fair and square in 2016, something the Obama team apparently sought to undermine. 

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