CHR - "This is Absolutely a Cold Case"

TOP LINE:

A seasoned law enforcement contact believes the FBI’s pipe bomber probe is “absolutely a cold case,” and the newly released video footage and details about the suspect are part of the bureau’s “tickle the wire” approach to generate new leads.  

The story of January 6th will never be fully understood until the pipe bomber is identified and their motive revealed.

DEEP DIVE:

This week, the FBI released new details and previously unseen video footage of its high priority suspect.  I write ‘high priority’ because the reward, of up to $500k, is the kind of reward typically associated with global terrorist networks.

The timeline is well documented. 

On the evening of January 5th 2021, sometime between 7:30 and 8:30 pm, the suspect planted two viable pipe bombs.  One device was left near a bench outside the Democratic National Committee (DNC) office and a second device was planted in an alleyway behind the Republican National Committee (RNC) office.  Both locations are a few short blocks from the U.S. Capitol building. 

“When investigators lack leads or want to ‘tickle the wire,’ they may use things like crime anniversaries..to help get them fresh leads,”  Scott Sweetow, a retired ATF and former acting Director of the FBI's Terrorist Explosive Device Analytical Center, explained.

Over the years, I have discussed the case with Sweetow and others.  Some of the newly released information struck both of us as probably not ‘new’ to investigators.

The FBI estimates the pipe bomber’s height at 5’7”.  Having covered the FBI since 9/11, it’s the kind of basic information I would expect investigators to immediately release. Asked if the FBI sat on the details, Sweetow said it also struck him as odd.  

“Typically, in any investigation, you want to get maximum information out to the public to spur leads as opposed to waiting,”  Sweetow said. “If there is particularly sensitive information which cannot be released, sometimes it is a tactical decision to withhold that, but given the length of time that has passed since the attempted bombings, it really made little investigative sense to hold back information like this for as long as they did.”

I was among the first journalists to report on the pipe bombs. Three days after the pipe bombs were discovered, I obtained this law enforcement bulletin that raised questions about the bomber’s timing and motive.

The choice of the RNC and DNC had obvious political overtones. According to the law enforcement records, the RNC device was reported at approximately 12:45 pm eastern on January 6th in the alley, wedged next to a garbage bin.  The DNC device was found a half hour later, at approximately 13:15 pm eastern, in the bushes outside the building.

Both devices were planted in lightly trafficked areas, suggesting the pipe bomber’s goal was to attract attention and not to inflict the greatest number of casualties.

In March 2021, I reviewed a second law enforcement report that summarized the FBI lab’s forensic report.  A key finding: both devices relied on mechanical kitchen timers. 

The Task Force report read, “...the forensic examination of a pipe bomb (device 1) indicated the device contained a powdery substance consistent with the oxidizer potassium nitrate, the fuel sulfur, and a fuel consistent with charcoal.  A second pipe bomb (device 2) contained the low explosive black powder which consisted of the oxidizer potassium nitrate, the fuel sulphur and a fuel consistent with charcoal….Both devices’ switches consisted of a generic kitchen timer.”

“A wire ran from the zero side of the timer to the positive side of the 9-volt snap connector on device 1. The igniters on both devices consisted of one piece of steel wool with two alligator clips.”

The pipe bombs had some sophistication, combining a mechanical timer and electrical ignition system. There was no secondary means of detonating the devices.  My contacts report most pipe bombs recovered in the US have a simpler design. 

When you are investigating a story, there is no substitute for going to the scene, and getting as close to the evidence as possible.  With some research, and the help of long time contacts, I purchased a similar kitchen timer (above.)  

I was struck by a flaw that is apparently well known to bomb techs. The 60 minute timers depend on the mechanical energy of a spring. If they are not properly wound, the electrical circuit will not be completed and the device will malfunction.

While the photos are grainy, it appears at least one timer may have stopped short of “zero,” but it’s hard to say for sure. 

All of this suggests the pipe bombs may have been designed to explode on January 5th. An explosion that night, hours before the Certification of Electoral Votes, would have fundamentally changed Capitol Hill’s security posture.

“Washington DC would have been locked down in a way few people have encountered, and substantial resources would have been marshaled due to the concern of additional attacks. Had this occurred, it is highly unlikely the subsequent events of January 6th could have occurred, as the capital would likely have been severely locked down,” Sweetow explained.  

While the bomb maker(s) may not have understood the potential flaw inherent in the use of kitchen timers, the apparent lack of DNA evidence suggests the bomb maker was not an amateur.

“This is absolutely a cold case. In the immediate aftermath of the bombing, the FBI threw massive resources at the case, which is certainly understandable given the political nature of the targets and the location being Washington DC,”  Sweetow emphasized. “The lack of forensic evidence in this case is highly unusual, and one of the most problematic things facing investigators.”

Aside from the newly released details from the FBI about the bomber’s height and distinctive sneakers, security videos from the street reveal another clue.  Almost as unique as DNA, it’s called “gait analysis”.  

Gait analysis is the way a person walks, their mannerisms, how they carry themselves. It can be a very powerful investigative tool.  Military and law enforcement sources tell me they use gait analysis to help identify targets in the field. 

“I have long felt that the mannerisms of the suspect, to include their gait, the way they bent over multiple times, and generally carried themselves was highly suggestive of a female,” Sweetow said.  His analysis was backed up by a second contact, a retired Special Forces officer.

It is hard to reconcile the known facts in the pipe bomber case.   Massive resources were expended by the FBI, but no suspect(s) have been publicly identified.  The suspect seen in the videos may not be the bomb maker and, in fact, investigators maybe looking for a small cell.

While the bomb maker may have been tripped up by the kitchen timers, they were expert enough to apparently avoid leaving significant DNA evidence.   

And lastly, the motive may have been distraction after a contentious election, not an explosion with significant casualties.  

“Sometimes you never actually discover what the intent is of a bomber,” Sweetow said in closing. “The choice of political targets, following a very contentious election and impending congressional certification implies a political motive for the bomber.  Because of that, it is possible the suspect wanted to cause general chaos in the National Capital Region in the hopes of eliciting some sort of action, although what that action was is difficult to say.”

This is a worthy case for the next FBI Director.

For its part, according to the AP, the FBI “has assessed over 600 tips, reviewed about 39,000 video files and conducted more than 1,000 interviews over the past four years.”

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Best, Catherine