CHR - New Intel: Sources Report Terrorists in Afghanistan Taking A Page From October 7 Playbook

TOP LINE

New Intel: Sources Report Terrorists in Afghanistan Taking A Page From October 7 Playbook

“The system is blinking red,”  a former special operator said. “No one wants to be in the room when the Afghanistan grenade goes off.”

The new reporting underscores concern that terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, are strengthening their foothold in Afghanistan.

DEEP DIVE

Vice President and now Presidential candidate Kamala Harris once boasted that when President Biden made the final call to pull US troops from Afghanistan she was the last person in the room.

Three years later, a recent UN report left no doubt Al Qaeda is building out its infrastructure in Afghanistan.

The UN monitoring team found, “Al-Qaida cells are operating in multiple Afghan provinces, mainly in the south-east of the country.”  And “While the Taliban have done much to constrain the activities of Al-Qaida and their affiliates…its reorganization and training activities, as well as new travel into Afghanistan, indicate that the group still uses Afghanistan as a permissive haven under the Taliban, raising questions about Al-Qaida’s intent.”

Credible sources now describe footage that suggests small terrorist cells, primarily Al Qaeda, training with ultralights and paragliders in Afghanistan.  The sources describe the terrorists as “taking a page from the October 7 playbook” by mirroring the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) of the 2023 Hamas attack which killed more than 1200 people in Israel.

The raw intelligence and reports also describe operatives trained to build light aircraft and drones from “off the shelf” materials available in large home improvement stores.  As described, the idea is not to export equipment from Afghanistan, but to build it once an operative is inserted near the target.  These small cells apparently have cooperation from the Taliban who, in some cases, monitor training sessions.

The reporting comes through credible sources and I draw no conclusions about potential contact between al Qaeda and Hamas.  As described, the most innocuous analysis is the footage was designed to boost morale among fighters and for fundraising.

Another intelligence stream details that in recent months an Al Qaeda operative traveled from Afghanistan to Saudi Arabia for financing, tasked with developing a weaponized drone capability for use against the US or its interests overseas.

That said, I understand the reporting has been shared at senior levels of the Defense Department, Homeland Security and likely CIA.  They have the ability to investigate, to assess the credibility of the reports, and most importantly, they have a duty to warn. 

My contacts say there is a sense of urgency among field agents and officers who are aware of the raw intelligence, but there is a “head in the sand” attitude at more senior levels.   Multiple sources explained, “No one wants to turn over the Afghanistan rock.”

The presence of these camps, and the threats they pose are amplified by the American military hardware that the Biden administration abandoned in Afghanistan.  In 2021, reporters were told and the public was reassured that the equipment would fall into disrepair. 

This has proven false. Images shared with our team from multiple sectors in Afghanistan suggest every level of the armed forces from police to military are leveraging our ballistic helmets, gloves, boots, optics, body armor and weapons.  

By summer, as I pulled the threads on the Afghanistan story, the warnings became more alarming.  NGOs and other groups who work with the US-based Afghan community voiced some of the deepest concerns.  They were, understandably, reluctant to go on the record, fearing retaliation from the administration. 

Intelligence is like a mosaic.  Slowly the pieces fall into place. It is a partial picture at best, but it suggests a landscape that is beginning to mirror pre-9/11 Afghanistan.  Twenty-three years ago, the safe haven in Afghanistan afforded al Qaeda the freedom to train, to recruit and to raise money for the 2001 terrorist attacks that killed nearly 3,000 Americans.

On Saturday, seeking comment, our team emailed the media contact for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which has oversight for the US intelligence community. When there was no response, and with the Sunday afternoon deadline approaching, we re-upped our questions adding the Defense Department, Homeland Security and CIA.   

The DoD duty officer and a CIA spokesperson responded. Both said they could look into our query Monday. Our questions focus on intelligence community efforts to determine credibility of the intel, risk to national security and briefings to congressional committees with oversight, including armed services and intelligence.

One of the most famous chapters in the 9/11 Commission Report is called, “The System was Blinking Red.”  It contains the painful chronology and missed opportunities to disrupt the 9/11 hijackers in the summer of 2001.

“As (CIA Director) Tenet told us, ‘The system was blinking red in the Summer of 2001.’ Officials were alerted across the world. Many were doing everything they possibly could to respond to the threats. Yet no one working on these late leads in the Summer of 2001 connected the case in his or her in-box to the threat reports agitating senior officials and being briefed to the President..”

Twenty-three years later, the warnings are there. Political sensitivities should not hinder efforts to acknowledge and disrupt emerging threats in Afghanistan.

Inside the SCIF

In this week’s inbox, a steady stream of feedback about the CBS Kamala Harris 60 Minutes edit, the network’s resistance to releasing the full, unedited transcript and video as well as more general questions about the MSM.

We heard from readers like Jeffrey L. who wrote, “I just wanted you to be aware that I shared 60 Minutes: The Kamala Harris Edit to Facebook, and within minutes they said the post was removed as it is abusive and hateful. They also told me that I could be permanently banned if I post abusive content in the future.”

Similar complaints have come in which go to the larger question of censorship on platforms. Our team launched investigative projects on @X without fear of censorship. This was especially important on topics ranging from COVID vaccine injury in the US military to government whistleblowers.

I will take on the election and what it reveals about the shifting media landscape in the near future.

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